Five days before the vote, Newsmakers's all-star panel of sharp-witted, battle-scarred, national politics professionals convened for a final colloquy about the most consequential presidential election in at least half-a-century (looking at you Hubert and Trick Dick) -- and perhaps since the Civil War.
Veteran campaign strategist Bill Carrick, esteemed political journalist Carla Marinucci, and old-pro reporter and Kamala Harris biographer Dan Morain joined the genial host for a conversation that called to mind long-ago. tribal "hacks and flacks" dinners (which, most often, were the high point of now-forgotten political conventions that, for some reason, required our attendance. But we digress).
In numbers now approaching infinity, a flood of almost-hourly public polls of the Kamala Harris-Donald Trump contest, in near-unanimity, reflect an identical state of play: a margin-of-error statistical dead heat. Although the Democratic Vice President has held a steady, if small, edge over the former Republican president in national election surveys, the two toggle back and forth in the standings in the crucial seven battleground states -- the industrial midwest theaters of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina -- that will determine the Electoral College outcome and decide the presidency.
Some takeaways from the gabfest:
What do women want? The most consequential data point, amid endless reams of "expert" election analysis, will be the "gender split" between Harris and Trump. She holds a substantial lead among women voters, matched by his considerable margin among men; as a practical matter, Trump would be hard-pressed to prevail, if her percentage advantage among women in the end exceeds his among men. Meanwhile Marinucci anecdotally reports meeting women, while door-knocking in Michigan, who say they'll go for Harris in the privacy of the voting booth, while MAGA husbands proudly plump for Trump.
Trump's two-track campaign. The candidate's nihilistic, clownish and repulsive public performances, which distract and bedazzle much of the national media, represent just a subsection of the Trump Campaign, one that's probably of lesser importance than a second division. Largely invisible to those not, um, blessed to reside in a battleground state, hundreds of millions worth of attack ads, orchestrated by Trump's low-profile but dangerously skillful, professional strategists relentlessly pound Harris, aiming at two huge vulnerabilities: her inescapable attachment to a hugely unpopular Joe Biden, and her own, on-camera past statements, in support of far-left, cultural and progressive initiatives.
Follow the money. As Morain notes, Harris's campaign financially has out-raised Trump's by nearly three-to-one, having collected nearly $1 billion since the start of 2023 (including contributions before she replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket), compared to Trump's $388 million, an advantage that has funded unceasing media advertising, as well as a deep and widespread on-the-ground organization in toss-up states. Then again, Hillary Clinton out-raised Trump too.
Get ready for a chaotic election season. Win or lose, Trump should be expected to declare himself the winner, most likely soon after polls close on the East Coast. Having tried to overturn one election four years ago, the MAGA movement is far better prepared this time out, and Trump already is seeding the ground by hurling false accusations of voter fraud in Pennsylvania, a likely tipping point state. If Harris finishes first, it's hard, nah, impossible, to imagine Trump graciously conceding; much better to demagogue and inflame turmoil and passions all the way to the scheduled House certification of the vote on January 6, four years to the day after Team Trump staged their first, unsuccessful but still deadly, coup.
Oligarchs on the march. The ongoing spectacle of Elon Musk, the world's richest person, turning over his X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter, to Trump's campaign, and throwing uncounted millions of dollars at the task of re-installing him in the White House -- all while vowing to slash the U.S. budget in his promised role as Trump's "government efficiency" czar -- is a stunning development in American politics. Coupled with the cowardly surrender of other, self-interested billionaires, including super-rich media moguls, and Trump's promises to rule as an authoritarian strongman, circumstances recall the rise of an autocratic oligarchy in 1990s Russia, when Putin established his dictatorial control..
Democrats face a reckoning. The sustained success of Trump's populist MAGA movement is powered by white working class voters, formerly a crucial segment of the Democratic Party's base. While Democrats increasingly have become an information economy party of college-educated voters, they've been bleeding support from people who work for wages. But less than one-third of the electorate holds a college degree and, as Trump now attracts non-white, working class voters, another traditional, Democratic constituency, the party of FDR, JFK and LBJ may eke out singular victories, but cannot in the long run maintain a winning coalition amid this sustained subtraction of voters.
Keep an eye on North Carolina. A native South Carolinian well-versed in Southern politics, Carrick advises West Coast political junkies, anxiously absorbing cable news as early returns pour in, to watch the the numbers in Tarheel country. Unlike many other states, North Carolina routinely avoids election day drama and chaos, and usually wraps things in a timely fashion; conventional wisdom says North Carolina is Harris's weakest battleground state, but if she's keeping it tight there, it may augur success in other crucial locales.
Plus: Don't miss Carla's big reveal.
JR
Check out our conversation with the Newsmakers' Professional Pundits' Panel via YouTube below, or by clicking through this link. The podcast is delayed by logistical issues, but will be linked here soon. TVSB, Channel 17, airs the program every weeknight at 8 p.m. and at 9 a.m. on weekends. KCSB, 91.9 FM, broadcasts the show at 5:30 p.m. on Monday.
Check out some of other conversations with Newsmakers' all-star pundit panel:
Harris-Trump debate recap: Kamala expands electoral map.
Veep debate: Eddie Haskell vs. Ted Lasso
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